Study early Chinese capital outflows from hidden sink to the people raised without

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Think tank China 40 professional Forum (CF40) on October 10, a research article published in the foreign media analysis, mainly because of capital outflow in China in the early "hidden sink to the people", in a broad sense "debt" has not been officially launched. Given our economy a large amount of foreign exchange reserves, and therefore should have a certain degree of tolerance and tolerance, don't read too much and overreaction.

CF40 is currently the leading professional think tank, founded on April 12, 2008, focusing on economic and financial policy in the field of research and evaluation by industry, China's most influential financial think-tank. This new research article titled capital outflows, China cracked the password of, the article said, since the second quarter of 2014, China's international revenue and expenditure changes "double surplus", showing a "current-account surplus and capital account deficits". By 2015, five quarters in the second quarter, the cumulative current account surplus of us $ 361.2 billion capital deficit of 181.3 billion US dollars. Capital outflows, China once again at home and abroad caused wide discussion, relevant reading today, opinions vary.

So, combined with the State administration of foreign exchange announced 2015 years in the second quarter and the first half of the balance of payments data, starting from the international caliber, capital outflows, China helps us to better analyze the current problems, root of the problem, and the false.

Data show that in 2014 to 2015 second-quarter in the second quarter, and foreign investment in China under a net outflow of $ 512.6 billion, with the net inflow of foreign investment under US $ 331.2 billion. The corresponding is, as of the end of June 2015, China's foreign financial assets in reserve assets, 58.6% per cent, down 6.8% from the end of March 2014.

Points out that, which reflects the foreign currency assets held by the countries to the folk dispersed holdings, compared with a decline in foreign exchange reserves can be understood as Central Bank foreign currency assets with private-sector replacement.

CF40 article, this "hidden sink to the people" caused an outflow of capital has its rationality, helps enterprises and optimizing the structure of assets and liabilities of the inhabitants, in line with the national macro-control and direction of the reform, "current-account surplus, the capital account deficit" itself is also a desirable balance of payments structure in China.

The so-called "hidden sink to the people", refers to the increased foreign exchange deposits in the territory, the exported extensions to and imports in advance, as well as foreign direct investment and portfolio investment, deposit and loans overseas. In addition another regular channels of capital outflow, the so-called "debt", which includes the territory subject to reduce domestic foreign exchange loans, foreign currency debt and extend the import and export advances, including overseas holdings of deposits, Renminbi assets such as bonds and stocks, and reduced foreign direct investment.

However, CF40 pointed out in her article, need to pay more attention to informal sources of capital outflow. In addition to official channels, underground is also an important way of various capital outflows from China.

2014 to 2015 second-quarter in the second quarter, and in the case of current account surplus rose 1.33 times, China's cumulative US $ 74.8 billion decrease in reserve assets, which today under the net errors and omissions-254.7 billion dollars, the chain expanded by 5.62 times times.

A negative net errors omissions cannot equate illegal capital outflow (or capital), but even if only a fraction of which are illegal for an outflow of capital, there are no small scale. And, because they are not statistics, and not regulated, has the potential to cause permanent capital flight, contains the financial risks.

In addition, the paper also warned that capital outflows are not yet widespread in our country in the early "debt repayment" occurs in the background. Once because of a crisis of confidence in the future and stimulate domestic institutions and individuals panicked hoarding foreign exchange and trigger withdrawal of domestic enterprises to accelerate the repayment of foreign debt and foreign investment to speed up, the situation will be even more complex and severe.

Behind the pricing rental will meet 27 to the

In this regard, the article should be the intention of the worst, and strive for the best results. "8.11" after the new currency, the Central Bank take the price and non-price, market and non-market means of stabilizing the market, stabilizing the exchange rate is necessary. But to consolidate and deepen the results of the new currency, also need reform and regulation to improve the Economic Outlook, regaining confidence in the market, which is the basis for stability in the foreign exchange market, strengthening market communication, reduce uncertainty, this is the key to prevent market panic; reduce market intervention, realizing two-way fluctuation of exchange rate up to down, which is advancing the reform of the exchange rate direction.