Winter has already been half a month, Shanghai at around 3,600 points shocks also have half a month, indexes long impregnable, a share and a key node.
On November 21, the Shanghai composite index to close at 3630.5 points, each institution views began to clash, some funds were down position adjustment. Some sell-side analysts said "homeopathy Takakura, the tiller."
Winter market to make money more difficult
, Sunday, November 8, winter. A share on November 9, 3,600 points begin up to 10 sessions of consolidation.
Period, the Shanghai composite index edged up 1.13%, Shen Chengzhi up 3.49% gem up 5.21%.
Zhang Yidong, an analyst at xingye securities chief policy said in a recent policy report, after nearly two weeks of strong turbulence, partially digested third-quarter turnover concentrated areas of the market and the market profit pressures in late autumn, is expected to continue next week.
"Late sparkling diamonds, top heavy Earth, babies hold tightly at the end of 3,000 points are on the horizon. "
This is Li Daxiao catchy four sentences recently, in an interview with Xinhua during Li Daxiao optimistic stressed: "If there is no force majeure, 3,000 will be the future horizon. "
In the view of Zhang Yidong, after winter, market through a strong shock, rather than proper adjustments as the market gears up for, subsequent market will become a structural break.
Haitong securities chief strategist Xun Yugen said, longer term interest rates driving down asset allocation toward the stock market trend remains unchanged. Short term, the Central Bank cut in the SLF rate liquidity to maintain loose pattern, upward trend of the market has not changed.
However, Zhang Yidong said current market money more difficult. On one hand, incremental funding limited admission scale, regulatory controls and financing leveraged, on the other hand prophase brokerage and insurance market fill up of value stocks lead index into the transaction-intensive areas in the third quarter, making stronger market continue to increase demand for funds.
"Enjoying the autumn market is actually based on the expected poor background rose to repair, make money strong effect. Winter market more to render as a structural feature, a limited number of sectors and themes of extreme hot, remaining stock make money real bad. "Zhang Yidong as measured by the median yield on all a-shares to make money effect, enjoying the autumn market starting from index lows until November 8, median rates of return of 30.5%, and November 8 is only 4.3%.
Some slight lighten up
In the eyes of the buyer's funds, long is the market adjustment of signal.
Surging journalists learned that fund managers are already beginning to see early this week. Female entrepreneur Xu Shuqing Lok Ma Note deeply
Said Fund Manager empty logical is that falling sharply depart from between the economic data and indicators is not sustainable. Since September, the market has risen so much background, adjust the risk has been growing.
"While the long-term bullish on China's economy and stock market, but short-term adjustment pressures are building, subject to release. "The Fund Manager said.
Fortis haitong Fund also said that despite the market swooned but rally won't last very long, will appear at the end of shock, the amplitude will be larger.
Million fund view: gem valuation at present nearly 100 times, highs near 7 August shock, increasing in the bubble shows signs of the market overheating, funding differences is further increased. Cumulative index rose has large, especially in small market capitalisation stocks rebound more, accumulating a certain amount of profit pressures.
Judging from the position, all Lu research center position measurement results show, from November 16 to 20th week open-end stock mutual funds (including stock funds and hybrid funds, excluding QDII and index funds) average positions from last week's 84.69% down to 84.12%. Stock funds average positions of 89.6%, lower than last week, 0.51% and hybrid Fund positions for an average of 74.28%, 0.65%, lower than last week.
"Every time new shares are micro-oil"
And small-cap growth stock remains the main battlefield of today, though risks increase.
Zhang Yidong, said gem as a representative of long term trend of robust growth stock, but after nearly two months after a sharp rebound, especially recent IPO, "on the big" new themes, new story significantly after fill up, needs to reduce the expected rate of return, not forced to have been chasing rising stocks market full of hot, better chances of getting a newer, flashier.
Fortis haitong Fund believes that gem trends change there are three indications: rally after too many of the leading plate adjustment appear fill up; rotation was not successful.
"Opportunities in the blue-chip, risk in the five black categories. "Li Daxiao stressed that small risk.
The so-called "five black classes" index small cap stocks, IPO, junk, theme units, and pseudo growth stocks.
"I tell everyone to stop 48.6 Yuan when buying PetroChina, because 100 years to recover. "Li Daxiao PetroChina's new shares, for example," now every time new shares listed is a miniature of PetroChina, China CNPC is staged every day same story, do be careful. "
When can I buy?
"Wait until it is cool to buy. "Li Daxiao told reporters that the gem now valuation is still relatively high, do not rule out excellent enterprises can overcome the overvalued, but the gem as a whole implies that some of the risks.
Growth stocks are the next main battlefield
Growth stocks are the core of this intermediate rally not only, but also the future of China's economic transition, reform and innovation field.
Zhang Yidong, for example, said the medium term, growth stocks through extensive acquisitions, constantly raising the lever, which boosted earnings growth and positive feedback. Short-term to get excess profits still relies on optimized updates more industry dazzles the small growth stocks, continued to watch the advanced manufacturing (new energy vehicles, nuclear power and high-speed trains, robots, etc) and modern service industry (media, health, sports, culture, etc), Internet, new energy automobile industry chain and the virtual reality industry chain gold rush.
From a valuation perspective, Xun Yugen tickets jump this year due to interest rates down drive valuations improve. In its view, in 2013, the gem market is divided into three phases:
First, 2013: structural differentiation, gem two-way bull market comes from earnings and valuations improve.
Second, 2014: valuation stable profits support the index upward.
Third, the 2015: interest rates down drive valuations improve.
"Seen from the index drive, 2015 SSE and szse net profit growth eased, gem and weaker profit acceleration in 2013, so rising indices at this stage primarily from valuation level has increased significantly, and the driving force behind this comes from the central bank interest rates down sharply after the release (compared to the level of interest rates in 2014 fell 17.8%). "
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